By Lawrence McMillan
The oversold conditions that existed last week generated a strong week-long rally. The move above 2100 was constructive, but the chart won’t really turn bullish until new highs are made and held. That would require a move above 2135.
Put buying has remained relatively heavy, despite the rally. As a result, the equity-only put-call ratios remain in an uptrend and thus remain on sell signals.
Currently both breadth oscillators are clinging to buy signals. During this rally, we have literally seen a collapse in volatility.
$VIX fell from 20 to 12m while $VXST fell from 22 to 10. Those are huge moves. These moves, along with the reinstatement of an upward-sloping term structure, return the volatility complex to a completely bullish state.
In summary, $SPX has now reached the stop of the trading range, more or less.
Can buy signals from put-call ratios overcome lackluster breadth readings and an overbought $VIX? I would think not, but only time will tell.
For now, we consider $SPX to still be in its trading range.