THE OPTION STRATEGIST – FREE WEEKLY UPDATER – Stock Market Commentary 10th Jul 2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index
The $SPX chart is now negative, although not terribly so. $SPX traded down to 2045 a couple of days, and has generally found support in the 2040-2050 area. Overhead, there is resistance at 2080-2085, where most trading days in the last week have topped out.  There is a series of lower highs on the chart, and the 20-day moving average is declining.  All of that adds up to a bearish chart.

Equity-only put-call ratios are bearish, as they continue to rise daily.

Market breadth has been very negative this week, as one might suspect.  Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals but deeply oversold.

Volatility indicators have been moving higher, and yesterday’s late action saw a strong rise in $VIX and other Volatility Indices. When volatility is trending higher, that’s bearish for stocks.

In summary, the indicators are negative — some more negative than we’ve seen for months.  However, there are a number of oversold conditions that could quickly revert to buy signals.  Volatility is high and expected to remain that way.  We are intermediate-term bearish, but would respect short-term buy signals.

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