Market Recap For 9th Feb 2015 – Will we really see $20 Crude Oil?

By Markus Heitkoetter

It was a relatively slow and choppy trading session on Monday. After the wild trading activity we had last week, the E-Mini S&P stayed confined to a 15 point range. Compared to the current Average Daily Range of 31.25, today’s range was just half the average of the last 7 trading days.

The S&P traded 9 points lower and ended the session at 2046.74. After multiple attempts to break into positive territory, the S&P dropped in the afternoon and closed lower for the session.

The DOW had a 95 point drop and closed at 17729.21. Small Caps and the RUSSELL had the biggest percent drop of the major indices with a .80% decline.

With a light economic calendar this week the theme will likely be “geopolitical concerns.” Greece and the possibility of a so called “Grexit” put some pressure on U.S. markets in early trading. And German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Obama held a press conference today discussing Ukraine tensions. Truce talks will continue on Wednesday.

Analysts at Citibank lowered their Crude Oil forecasts by announcing that Crude Oil could fall into the $20 range. With strong production and the U.S. shale boom, they hinted at the “end of OPEC” and their control on price fixing that benefits oil producing countries.

It’s hard to say if Crude Oil has the potential to drop to $20. What we do know is that Crude Oil was up 2.6% today. Using the PowerX Method Crude Oil is currently in an “untriggered” uptrend. Based on where things stand, we’d like to see a new trend established before getting comfortable with this current uptrend.


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