Market Recap 23rd March 2014 – The “Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift” strikes again…

By Markus Heitkoetter

The S&P pushed to new all-time highs in the first 4 minutes of trading on Friday, but struggled at these highs and eventually sold off into the close. The S&P finished -5.5 points lower on the session while the DOW lost -28 points.

Friday’s move lower wasn’t enough to change the weekly picture. The S&P was up +25.5 points on the week and the DOW added +237 points.

Taking a closer look at the week, MOST of the move higher came in the first 2 days of the week before the FOMC Statement. A phenomenon known as “The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift” states that the S&P has a tendency to rise in the 24 hours before a Fed Statement. In fact, since 1994 the S&P has increased 49 basis points on average during this 24 hour period.

Netflix (NFLX) has been moving nicely lower since a Power Crossover Method short signal was identified on 3/12/14. With an Average Daily Range target at $399.71, it would be nice to take profits on a move towards $400 this week.


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