Weekly Updater Stock Market Commentary 17 Jan 2014

By Lawrence G. McMillan

If there is a theme to this market, it’s this: it’s overbought, but continuing to rise. There is strong support for $SPX at 1810. Moreover, there is now resistance near 1850.

Now for the litany of bullish, but overbought indicators: Equity- only put-call ratios are typical of this group. Both ratios are declining, and that is bullish. In addition, both ratios are at the lowest levels on their chart and that means they’re overbought.

Market breadth indicators are in a somewhat similar state. Both indicators are on buy signals, and both indicators are in (moderately overbought territory.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) continue the pattern of indicators that are overbought but bullish.

In summary, the market is overbought but bullish. That means it can continue to rise, with the proviso that sharp, but short-lived corrections (such as last Monday’s) are possible at any time.

In summary, there are some overbought conditions (although no confirmed sell signals), but unless $SPX breaks down below support at 1810, and $VIX climbs above 14.50, this will remain a bull market


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